A Taiwan Contingency and Japan's Counterstrike Debate
The United States and Japan could be drawn into a conflict in the event of Chinese aggression against Taiwan whether they like it or not. Allied defense planning could consider how Japan might further reinforce deterrence and if necessary improve its ability to contribute to the common defense.
Jul 23, 2021 The Diplomat
What Xi Jinping's Communist Party Valedictory Speech Can Tell Us About His Conception of China and Its Role in the World
On July 1, Xi Jinping commemorated the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party by laying out a vision of China's future. What can Xi's speech, redolent with imagery of righteous struggle against foreign oppressors, tell us about where China's top leader sees his country's relationship with the world heading?
Jul 7, 2021 The Hill
Inequality in Opportunity to Work from Home an Underlying Condition Likely Aggravated by the Pandemic
Building a safe, healthy workforce where success, productivity, and financial security are available to all segments of American society could provide resilience against inevitable future shockwaves. Since working from home is a key part of such resilience, policymakers could focus on supporting the advantages, remediating the downsides, and expanding access to this form of work.
May 14, 2021 Detroit News
Suga-Biden Summit: Rekindling Confidence in the U.S.-Japan Alliance
The April summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga signaled a deepening in the U.S.-Japan alliance. It highlighted important new areas of cooperation and a concrete agenda for U.S.-Japan relations.
Apr 26, 2021 Kyodo News
'Joe-Yoshi' Spirit Buoys Japan-U.S. Alliance in Turbulent Seas
President Biden and Prime Minister Suga appear to have established a warm, personal rapport while communicating a clear vision of the importance of working together to end the pandemic, combat climate change, preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific, and defend democracy.
Apr 20, 2021 The Diplomat
Upcoming Summit an Opportunity for Japan to Reconsider Whether to Join Rest of G-7 in Sanctioning China Over Genocide
Japan has been lukewarm in its response to global condemnation of China's crimes against humanity against the Uyghurs and other Muslim minority groups in Xinjiang. What options might President Biden have to encourage Japan to reconsider its position as he hosts his first in-person summit meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga?
Apr 15, 2021 The Hill
The Japan-U.S. Summit and Cooperation with South Korea
The Biden administration's goal of renewed Japan–South Korea–U.S. trilateralism is laudable and promising, but substantial obstacles remain. The passage of time alone is not going to strengthen ties between South Korea and Japan. Washington may have to play a leading role if it wants to see relations between Seoul and Tokyo improve.
Apr 6, 2021 The Diplomat
As COVID-19 Makes Clear, U.S. Allies in the Indo-Pacific, Not the Money They Pay to Host U.S. Forces, Are the Value Proposition
The great value the United States extracts from its alliances with Japan and South Korea is not the money they provide to offset the costs of hosting U.S. forces; the value is the deep and abiding alliances themselves and the liberal, democratic, rule of law market economies and societies to which they link the United States.
Jun 12, 2020 The Dlplomat
Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?
The contrasts in behavior between Taiwan and China during the COVID-19 pandemic show why it could be critical that U.S. policymakers consider advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation to enhance Taiwan's security, protect U.S. interests, and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Jun 8, 2020 The Hill
For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It’s the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un Per Se, That Is the Threat
Would Kim Jong Un's death improve U.S., South Korean, and Japanese security? Maybe not. North Korea's advancing nuclear and other military capabilities are driving an expanded set of problems, and while Kim's sudden death might constitute a destabilizing factor for the regime, the available evidence suggests the regime itself is the problem.
Jun 8, 2020 RealClearDefense
Jumpstarting the U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Amid COVID-19
Since roughly 2012, South Korea–Japan ties have frayed. Could the United States encourage trilateral medical cooperation during the pandemic, ensure that the Tokyo Olympic Games are held, and in so doing help heal the relationship between Seoul and Tokyo?
May 6, 2020 The Diplomat
China's Footprint in Europe
Tensions between Washington and Brussels may be helping China find a more receptive audience for its Belt and Road initiative. One of the central challenges for the United States and Europe will be to forge a more united approach to China's resurgence.
Jan 13, 2020 ChinaFile
U.S. Policy Options for Hong Kong
After months of escalating police violence and protester resistance, matters in Hong Kong have come to a head. What steps could the United States consider to reduce the prospect of a resurgence in violence?
Dec 2, 2019 Council on Foreign Relations
South Korea Should Consider Sticking with Intelligence-Sharing Pact with Japan
South Korea announced its intent to withdraw from an intelligence-sharing arrangement with Japan. There are four reasons that Seoul should strongly consider reversing course.
Nov 5, 2019 The Diplomat
The Emerging U.S.–China Strategic Competition and the Role of Trans-Atlantic Cooperation
When competing with China, what role should U.S. alliances, especially the transatlantic relationships the United States has with its European partners, play? This question is potentially decisive for whether or not any strategy adopted by the U.S. to compete with China will succeed or fail.
Oct 8, 2019 Institut Montaigne
South Korea–Japan Tensions Complicate U.S. Efforts to Leverage Allies in Competition with China
The rapid deterioration of ties between South Korea and Japan not only undercuts America's Indo-Pacific strategy, it also increases the risks to U.S. allies and partners in the region. Just how consequential is the growing South Korea–Japan tension for U.S. strategy and what is Washington doing to address the issue?
Sep 17, 2019 Institut Montaigne
Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan
Why does the U.S. sell arms to Taiwan? And what is the impact on the cross-Strait military balance? Taiwan's arms purchase reflects a continuing concern over Beijing's military intentions; a balancing of operational and political considerations; a commitment by the United States to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself; and an American refusal to “stand down” in the face of China's aggressive behavior and coercion of Indo-Pacific democracies.
Aug 9, 2019 Institut Montaigne
Managing U.S. Military-to-Military Relations with China, a Strategic Competitor in an Era of Renewed Great Power Competition
The United States National Security Strategy describes a return of great power rivalry with China as the leading challenger, and the National Defense Strategy prioritizes strategic competition. What are the implications for U.S.-China military-to-military relations?
Mar 8, 2019 ChinaFile
What Does Japan Think of the Iran Nuclear Deal?
What is Tokyo's view of the Iran nuclear deal and how has Tokyo responded to the U.S. threat to withdraw from it? What role is Japan, the world's third-largest economy, a major U.S. ally, and the only country ever to be attacked with nuclear weapons, likely to play in attempting to preserve, improve, or scrap the deal?
Mar 26, 2018 The Diplomat
Countering North Korea's Political Warfare
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has outmaneuvered South Korean President Moon Jae-in in the month leading up to the Olympics. This has dangerous consequences for South Korea's security, democracy, and its alliance with the United States.
Feb 11, 2018 The Diplomat
South Korea Picking the Wrong Fight
Washington may need to encourage Seoul to find ways to cooperate with Tokyo in confronting threats from the region's revisionist actors, rather than picking fights with Japan.
Jan 7, 2018 The Diplomat
U.S.-Japan Defense Relations Under Trump
U.S.–Japan relations appear to be stabilizing after a successful visit by Defense Secretary James Mattis to Tokyo that reaffirmed the alliance, followed by an equally successful visit by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the U.S. Next, will the Trump administration articulate goals for the region?
Mar 3, 2017 The Cipher Brief
Mattis' Mission in Asia
U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis made his first overseas trip this week, visiting Japan and South Korea. He reassured them that U.S. alliances in East Asia will remain strong, while also clarifying Washington's expectations.
Feb 6, 2017 U.S. News & World Report
The Legacy Obama Leaves His Successor in Asia
The U.S. pivot to the Indo-Pacific has improved U.S. popularity and influence, and positioned it for gains in regional economic, diplomatic, and military cooperation. The incoming administration would be wise to embrace these gains and build on them to preserve and further develop U.S. interests and influence in the region.
Oct 26, 2016 The National Interest
Don't Weaken the U.S.-Japan Alliance, Strengthen It
As long as the United States and Japan stick together, they should have the strength to deter or, if necessary, defeat the threats they face. But if Washington abandons its alliance commitments, the risk of war will rise and America will be less safe.
Aug 14, 2016 The National Interest
Do Economic Ties Limit the Prospect of Conflict?
China has grown stronger economically and militarily over the past 35 years and has become more assertive. Its trade and investment links with Japan are substantial but they have been declining, and are less of a constraint on conflict than before.
Aug 9, 2016 The Cipher Brief
The U.S.-China Cyber Agreement: A Good First Step
The 2015 U.S.-China cyber agreement is a potentially important first step toward addressing the problem of Chinese espionage. But it is by no means a final step.
Aug 1, 2016 The Cipher Brief
President Obama's Visit to Japan and the Transformation of Japan's Defense Policy
Washington and Tokyo have moved to actively shape and reinforce the values, norms, institutions, and regional order that have served to enable the Asia-Pacific to emerge as an engine of growth and bastion of freedom and democracy over the past nearly 40 years.
May 31, 2016 The Cipher Brief
Why Has Obama Lifted the Arms Sales Ban on Vietnam?
The lifting of the arms embargo needs to be understood as part of the long process of normalizing relations with a former U.S. enemy and building toward a more cooperative, economically dynamic, and strategic future-oriented relationship.
May 25, 2016 Newsweek
5 Things That Should Happen When Obama Visits Hiroshima
On May 27, President Barack Obama will be the first sitting U.S. president to visit the city of Hiroshima. The visit is a sign of respect and friendship between the American and Japanese people, and should make the two countries' ties even stronger.
May 23, 2016 U.S. News & World Report
Obama Should Visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki
During his upcoming visit to Japan, President Obama will have an opportunity to do something that none of his predecessors have ever done: visit the first and last cities to suffer atomic bombings.
Apr 28, 2016 Newsweek
Shinzo Abe Visit Caps New Dawn in U.S.-Japan Relations
A shift toward “collective self-defense” will allow Japan to take joint military action with its allies even when it is not directly attacked and thereby participate in security measures beyond its borders. Prime Minister Abe's trip to Washington this week is intended to cement Japan's deepening bilateral security alliance with the U.S.
Apr 30, 2015 U.S. News & World Report
Big Trouble in Little China
As China's central government and Hong Kong residents consider next steps after last week's decision on the 2017 chief executive election, they will do so against a background of deteriorating trust, declining social acceptance of integration, and a worsening of relations between Hong Kong and mainland Chinese society.
Sep 9, 2014 Foreign Affairs
Thoughts on China's New Air Defense Zone Policy
In response to an inquiry from The Nelson Report, RAND's Scott Harold offered some thoughts on China's new air defense zone policy and how Japan and South Korea could be brought closer together by their respective responses.
Dec 4, 2013 The RAND Blog
Obama-Park Summit a Critical Opportunity for the US-Korea Alliance
To preserve and protect the peace and freedom that has seen Asia develop into a third engine of the global economy, the United States and South Korea should take steps to deepen their security cooperation in three areas: bilateral alliance management, defense force modernization, and improved regional diplomatic coordination.
Apr 18, 2013 PacNet, CSIS and Asia Times
A Russia-China Alliance Brewing?
Three major areas appear to have been the focus of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin's recent summit: managing expectations about the relationship; expanding bilateral trade in energy and arms; and cooperation on international security affairs.
Apr 12, 2013 The Diplomat
China's Defense Spending Mystery
China's decision to expand defense spending also carries clues about the Party's need to keep the military happy, the new leadership's confidence and new President Xi Jinping's ability to put his own stamp on policy from the start, writes Scott Harold.
Mar 13, 2013 CNN
What to Expect from Obama and Abe's U.S.-Japan Summit
To make the meeting between President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe successful, Washington and Tokyo will need to gain greater clarity on three broad areas: security, trade, and common values, writes Scott Harold.
Feb 22, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
Obama Trip Could Be Bellwether for U.S.-Asia Relations
Specific areas of focus for President Obama's visit are likely to include expanding trade and investment opportunities for U.S. businesses in Southeast Asia, increasing defense cooperation with Thailand, and offers of disaster recovery assistance to Burma in the wake of its recent earthquake, writes Scott Harold.
Nov 15, 2012 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Panetta Walks Fine Line During China Visit
Panetta's visit should make clear that China's lawless domestic behavior will not be allowed to be repeated abroad, because if it is, it could lead to armed conflict between China and the U.S.-Japan alliance, writes Scott Harold.
Sep 19, 2012 The RAND Blog
Will China's Nationalism Come Back to Bite Leaders?
It is possible that at some point, anti-Japan protests could slip beyond the regime's control, and Party leaders worry that mishandling such tensions could affect the regime's legitimacy—and ultimately erode its grip on power, writes Scott Harold.
Sep 5, 2012 CNN
Beijing Unflustered by Cool Ties With Seoul
In light of deeply-rooted policy differences, so clearly on display in China’s treatment of South Korea over the past two years, no amount of tweaking around the margins of policy, inspired by internet polling, is likely to lead to dramatic improvements in the bilateral relationship.
Aug 20, 2012 YaleGlobal
Questions After the First U.S. Bank Takeover by a Chinese State-Controlled Company
In considering foreign application to acquire U.S. companies, the United States needs to consider both risks as well as benefits in both defense and economic dimensions, write Charles Wolf, Jr., Brian Chow, Gregory Jones, and Scott Harold.
May 15, 2012 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
