Research Brief
Little in Common
Feb 20, 2023
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in Europe and the Middle East on seven issues: broader Euro-Atlantic security, Baltic security, Balkan security and strategic orientation, Turkey's regional role and strategic orientation, the future of Ukraine, Middle East stability and peace processes, and countering Iran and its proxies.
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Can the United States find ways to cooperate with China or Russia in Europe and the Middle East? Using official U.S., Chinese, and Russian policy documents, leadership statements, and other sources, the authors of this report assess the prospects for great power cooperation on seven issues: broader Euro-Atlantic security, Baltic security, Balkan security and strategic orientation, Turkey's regional role and strategic orientation, the future of Ukraine, Middle East stability and peace processes, and countering Iran and its proxies.
The authors find that, in Europe, opportunities for cooperation on the core security challenges with either competitor are virtually absent, but there are opportunities to limit escalation or manage tensions. In the Middle East, more substantive opportunities for cooperation exist in principle — more with Russia than China, but some cooperative options exist even with the latter. However, in both regions, there are multiple obstacles that will likely preclude the United States from seizing the more ambitious of these opportunities in the near term. This research was completed in September 2020, before the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and before the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. It has not been subsequently revised.
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
American, Chinese, and Russian Overarching Interests in Europe and the Middle East
Chapter Three
Broader Euro-Atlantic Security
Chapter Four
Baltic Security
Chapter Five
Balkan Security and Strategic Orientation
Chapter Six
Turkey's Regional Role and Strategic Orientation
Chapter Seven
The Future of Ukraine
Chapter Eight
Middle East Stability and Peace Processes
Chapter Nine
Countering Iran and Its Proxies
Chapter Ten
Conclusions and Recommendations
The research reported here was commissioned by Headquarters Air Force A-5 Strategy Section and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
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