The Escalation Fixation
Fears of global nuclear annihilation should have produced a concerted effort by all sides to keep the Ukraine conflict limited. But the focus on escalation—rather than ensuring Russia's defeat—has instead made the international security picture more precarious.
May 6, 2022 The Hill
Russia, Ukraine, and the Misuse of History
History as playbook has been used to paint the Ukraine conflict as the start of a larger battle for Europe. But even if it is Putin's intent to knock over one domino of a European country after another, the Russian Army—unlike the Soviet Army of old—simply does not have the capacity to do that.
Apr 6, 2022 Defense One
The Ukraine War's Three Clocks
As the war in Ukraine creeps into its second month, perhaps the most common question is: How will it end? Ultimately, the answer comes down to three internal clocks—Ukraine's, which is counting down in years, Russia's, in months, and the United States and NATO's, which is stalled at the moment but could restart quite quickly.
Apr 1, 2022 The Hill
Europe After the Ukraine War
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has generated a massive backlash that is likely to endure even if the guns fall silent. What are the longer-term implications for Europe, and how will it affect European energy policy, military preparedness, and overall unity?
Mar 21, 2022 Lawfare
Why It Could Be a Strategic Mistake to Rule Out a No-Fly Zone Policy
The United States has been willing to entertain many forms of support to Ukraine, but senior administration and congressional leaders have categorically ruled out declaring a no-fly zone over the country. While American policymakers are rightfully hesitant to implement a no-fly zone policy, it could be a strategic mistake to say so in public.
Mar 16, 2022 Fox News Channel
The False Choice Between China and Russia
Some China hawks have argued that any U.S. response to Russia would detract from America's ability to deter China. But it's a mistake to think of China and Russia as independent problems.
Feb 21, 2022 The Hill
American Deterrence's Missing Half
If American deterrence fails, it may not be because adversaries doubt U.S. military capabilities so much as they doubt American willpower. Shifting those perceptions will require not just defense authorizations, but also repairing the social fabric here at home.
Jan 24, 2022 The Hill
The Big Unanswered Question of the Afghanistan War
The United States' war in Afghanistan may be over, but the debate over the legacy of America's longest war has just begun. The U.S. defeat raises many questions. For the future of American defense strategy, one big question perhaps stands out above all: Does the United States still have the grit necessary to fight and win long wars?
Oct 4, 2021 Lawfare
The Real Tragedy of Israel's Wars in Gaza
Israel's strategy in Gaza of repeatedly cutting back Hamas's military capabilities before it gets strong enough to do Israel any serious harm is known as “mowing the grass.” Unfortunately this approach offers no alternative to continued bloodshed.
Jun 22, 2021 The National Interest
It's Time to Drop 'Competition' in the National Defense Strategy
What should the U.S. Defense Department do during peacetime if the United States is not competing with China and Russia? Simply put, it should prepare to win the next war, while defeating any military aggression below the threshold of conflict.
May 18, 2021 The Hill
Book Review: 'Liberalism, the Blob, and American Foreign Policy: Evidence and Methodology' by Robert Jervis
Robert Jervis' “Liberalism, the Blob, and American Foreign Policy: Evidence and Methodology” is a thoughtful review of two books written by prominent international relations theorists John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt. Jervis focuses his critique primarily on methodology and argues that the actual historical record is more complicated than either Mearsheimer or Walt suggests.
Mar 12, 2021 H-Diplo
What the UAE Weapons Deal Says About the United States and Its Alliances
Various U.S. administrations have long wanted U.S. allies to do more, but in many parts of the world the most logical partners are authoritarian states with different interests than those of the United States. The sale of military equipment to the United Arab Emirates provides just the latest example.
Mar 1, 2021 Lawfare
Why Biden Can't Turn Back the Clock on the Iran Nuclear Deal
Enacted in 2016, the Iran nuclear deal was predicated on a geopolitical context that no longer exists. Addressing Iran's nuclear program today may require a different solution.
Mar 1, 2021 The Hill
Why Overseas Military Bases Continue to Make Sense for the United States
Voices on the left and right have proposed downsizing America's overseas military footprint. While the merits of basing in a particular location should be open to debate, the underlying twin logics of deterrence and reassurance behind permanently stationing American forces overseas remain operationally, economically, and strategically as sound as ever.
Jan 14, 2021 War on the Rocks
Why We 'Send Them Money'
Why does the United States send foreign countries American taxpayer money? The answer, in short, is because it serves U.S. self-interest to do so. Aid is not some act of charity at the American taxpayers' expense; it can help keep Americans safer, more prosperous, and secure.
Dec 30, 2020 The Hill
The Future of Warfare: Q&A with Raphael Cohen
What will the next decade of warfare look like? Raphael Cohen led a project to answer that question for the U.S. Air Force. The team considered not just technological or force changes, but also how global politics, economics, and the environment will shift and evolve between now and 2030.
Sep 8, 2020
Why the United States Will Need a New Foreign Policy in 2020
Even before the pandemic, the United States faced a growing strategic predicament: U.S. challenges are mounting, and America's international commitments increasingly outstrip its means to fulfill them.
May 26, 2020 The Hill
Why COVID-19 Will Not Stop Globalization
Commentators have predicted that the outbreak will upend how we think about the flow of people and goods across borders and leave a markedly different world in its wake. But while COVID-19 will change the mechanics of globalization, it will likely not spell globalization's death knell.
Apr 13, 2020 Lawfare
What Do You Do with a Problem Like COVID-19?
Over the last several decades, Americans' trust in their government and its institutions crumbled. Beyond that, the value of truth and expertise, the common bedrock of sound policymaking, was decaying in American society. COVID-19 might present an opportunity to correct some of these ills.
Apr 10, 2020 Fox News Channel
The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory
Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories.
Jan 22, 2020 War on the Rocks
Baghdad Siege Wasn't Benghazi, and Never Will Be
Given the heightened tension between the United States and Iran and the ongoing instability in Iraq, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad may very well be attacked again. If such an attack were to be successful, it would be more akin to the fall of the U.S. Embassy in Saigon than the U.S. mission in Benghazi.
Jan 6, 2020 Fox News Channel
The Flawed Logic of Proportionality
President Trump halted a retaliatory strike against Iran on the basis that it would have claimed many Iranian lives and was not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. There are many good reasons to avoid attacking Iran, but if Washington must resort to force in the future, it should avoid the flawed logic of proportionality.
Jul 1, 2019 The Hill
What Ronald Reagan Can Teach Us About Dealing with Contemporary Russia
Politics loves its historical analogies and today, perhaps, there is no more common a comparison to the Trump presidency than the Reagan administration. Reagan's tenure was marked by his successful competition with the Soviet Union. Does Reagan provide a blueprint for triumphing over modern Russia?
May 13, 2019 Lawfare
Russia's Soft Strategy to Hostile Measures in Europe
They've been called political warfare, measures short of war, gray zone warfare, and a host of other terms. Russia has used a wide range of hostile measures to expand its influence and undermine governments across the European continent. These tactics should be appreciated for what they are: part of a larger, coherent Russian effort, but ultimately not an insurmountable one.
Feb 26, 2019 War on the Rocks
What Border Walls Can and Cannot Accomplish
States have been building walls since ancient times. Some were arguably quite successful, others less so. At the core of prudent policy lies a basic question: What can walls realistically accomplish?
Jan 8, 2019 Fox News Channel
The More Things Change: Explaining Continuity in Defense Strategy
United States presidential administrations from Clinton to Trump have championed different approaches to military and defense policy. The verbiage of the National Defense Strategy, however, remains relatively the same and the numbers reflect more incremental rather than monumental shifts.
Apr 25, 2018 War on the Rocks
Political Warfare Is Back with a Vengeance
The United States' principal adversaries are fighting and gaining ground by employing a host of tactics short of all-out war. This form of warfare, once called political warfare, is back with a vengeance, empowered by new tools and techniques.
Apr 13, 2018 The National Interest
Minding the Gap: The Military, Politics, and American Democracy
The gap between Americans' confidence in the military versus its civilian counterparts has widened over the last several decades. This has led former military officers to play an increasingly prominent role in politics and changed the civil-military balance in potentially unhealthy ways.
Dec 18, 2017 Lawfare
Five Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza
After a decade of operating against Hamas in Gaza, the Israel Defense Force has learned many lessons about urban warfare against hybrid adversaries. The last confrontation teaches five basic lessons that apply well beyond Gaza.
Aug 3, 2017 War on the Rocks
Why Strategies Disappoint — and How to Fix Them
Strategies fail because leaders are unwilling to make difficult decisions at the risk of being wrong. Can the new U.S. administration succeed in fixing the strategy process?
Mar 20, 2017 Lawfare
Five Simple Strategy Lessons for a New Secretary of Defense
Secretary of Defense James Mattis will need to lay the intellectual groundwork to fulfill President Trump's promise of “a great rebuilding” of the United States military. History suggests that how the strategies are developed may be as important to their success as what they say.
Mar 2, 2017 RealClearDefense
Understanding the U.S. Military's Morale 'Crisis'
The military's discontent may stem from dissonance between the commitment to, and pride in, the mission in Iraq and Afghanistan and the knowledge that these sacrifices have not yielded the desired results. Those wars arguably have prompted a crisis of confidence within the military itself.
Jun 29, 2015 Lawfare
The Foreign Policy Essay: Hearts, Minds, & ISIL
Defeating ISIL will not come from winning hearts and minds and soft power, nor will it come from a handful of precision airstrikes. It will require hard, bloody ground combat. The United States may not want to admit this, but it is the grim truth nonetheless.
Oct 13, 2014 Lawfare
The Grim Lessons of 'Protective Edge'
For all the attempts to find technological quick fixes or enforce a permanent settlement, Operation Protective Edge has highlighted that a war of attrition, known as a 'long war,' remains the only viable strategy in the current environment.
Sep 3, 2014 The American Interest
