Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

Policy Researcher; Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Washington Office

Education

M.Sc. in international affairs, London School of Economics and Political Science; M.A. in international affairs, Peking University; B.A. in International Affairs and Chinese Language and Culture, The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs

One Page Bio

Overview

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on Asian security issues. He is also a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Chinese military strategy, China-North Korea relations, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Korean Peninsula and INDOPACOM posture.

Prior to joining RAND, Beauchamp-Mustafaga was the editor of China Brief at The Jamestown Foundation, a biweekly publication focusing on strategic China-related issues utilizing indigenous language sources. He has also spent time with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Peking University (CISS), and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC).

Beauchamp-Mustafaga graduated from the dual-degree M.Sc. in International Affairs program at the London School of Economics and Peking University, and earned a bachelor’s degree in international affairs and Chinese language and literature from the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and a Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leader. In total, Beauchamp-Mustafaga lived in China for over three years and completed a year each of high school, university and master's education at seven schools in five cities throughout China.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Scott Harold, Through the Looking Glass: Chinese Open Source Assessments of North Korea's Ballistic Missile Capabilities, Korea Economic Institute of America, 2020

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Michael Chase, Borrowing a Boat Out to Sea: The Chinese Military's Use of Social Media for Influence Operations, John Hopkins SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, 2020

Watts, Stephen, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Benjamin N. Harris, and Clint Reach, Alternative Worldviews: Understanding Potential Trajectories of Great-Power Ideological Competition, RAND Corporation (RR-2982-NIC), 2020

Mazarr, Michael J., Abigail Casey, Alyssa Demus, Scott W. Harold, Luke J. Matthews, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, and James Sladden, Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends, RAND Corporation (RR-2713-OSD), 2019

Derek Grossman, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Logan Ma and Michael S. Chase, China's Long-Range Bomber Flights: Drivers and Implications, RAND Corporation (RR-2567), 2018

Cozad, Mark, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, People's Liberation Army Air Force Operations over Water: Maintaining Relevance in China's Changing Security Environment, RAND Corporation (RR-2057-AF), 2017

Michael S. Chase, Cristina L. Garafola, and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, "Chinese Perceptions of and Responses to U.S. Conventional Military Power," Asian Security, 2017

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Deciphering PLA Media Commentaries on North Korea: Going Rogue or Staying on Script, Korea Economic Institute of America, 2015

Honors & Awards

Bronze Medal Award, 2021, RAND Corporation
Spotlight Award, 2018, Arroyo Center, RAND Corporation

Languages

Mandarin Chinese

Commentary

Geopolitical Strategic Competition

China's Military Aid Is Probably Less Than You Think
The first comprehensive assessment of Chinese military aid shows that China's $560 million total during 2013-2018 pales in comparison to the U.S. total of over $35 billion in the same period. This should offer advantages in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition.
Jul 26, 2022
The Diplomat
China

The Signal and the Noise: Understanding China's Military Threats
Although China's capabilities and communication channels have changed, its fundamental approach to military deterrence signaling as a form of political coercion has not. As Australia-China relations enter a new, more confrontational era, Canberra is likely to be an increasingly frequent target of Chinese deterrence signaling.
Jun 29, 2021
The Diplomat
Military Aircraft

Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?
Recent bomber flights near Taiwan represent the most concerted training regimen yet aimed at improving Chinese airpower. China seeks to enhance the PLA Air Force's capabilities and signal Beijing's will to defend its territorial claims against the U.S. and its regional allies and partners, especially Taiwan and Japan.
Sep 13, 2017
War on the Rocks
China

China Signals Resolve with Bomber Flights Over the South China Sea
Since the PCA tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines' case on July 12, invalidating many of China's claims in the South China Sea, Beijing has sought to demonstrate its military strength in the region. The PLAAF's H-6K has played a key role.
Aug 2, 2016
War on the Rocks

Publications

Journal Article
Exploring Chinese Thinking on Deterrence in the Not-So-New Space and Cyber Domains
This conference volume chapter explores evolving Chinese thinking on space and cyber deterrence. Besides nuclear deterrence, the space and cyber domains are viewed by China as its main means of strategic deterrence.
Feb 21, 2023
Research Brief
Little in Common: Prospects for U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia Security Cooperation
This brief presents the overarching findings of a study that explored the extent to which the United States might still be able to cooperate with China and Russia, even in this era of strategic competition.
Feb 20, 2023
Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in Europe and the Middle East
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in Europe and the Middle East across seven issue areas.
Feb 20, 2023
Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Global Commons
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia on global commons issues, including freedom of access to space, countering violent extremist organizations, and promoting global stability.
Feb 20, 2023
Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific across seven issues, including securing a free and open Indo-Pacific and the denuclearization of North Korea.
Feb 20, 2023
Report
Vanishing Trade Space: Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in an Era of Competition — A Project Overview
To what extent can the United States still cooperate with China and Russia even in this era of strategic competition? This report, the first of a four-part series, presents the overarching findings of a study that explored this question.
Feb 20, 2023
Report
New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts
This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China.
Dec 20, 2022
Report
Chinese and Russian Perceptions of and Responses to U.S. Military Activities in the Space Domain
RAND researchers reviewed a variety of Chinese and Russian primary sources to understand internal Chinese and Russian perceptions of U.S. military space-related policies and activities. This report presents the results of their analysis.
Oct 11, 2022
Report
Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century
The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.
Apr 14, 2022
Report
Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition
In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.
Apr 6, 2022
Report
Chinese Disinformation Efforts on Social Media
The authors identify key Chinese practices and the supporting infrastructure and conditions that successful social media disinformation campaigns require, concluding that China is using Taiwan as a test bed for developing attack vectors.
Jul 19, 2021
Report
Combating Foreign Disinformation on Social Media: Study Overview and Conclusions
Disinformation campaigns on social media pose a nuanced threat to the United States, but the response remains ad hoc and uncoordinated. This overview of a five-volume series presents ways to better prepare for this new age of information warfare.
Jul 19, 2021
Journal Article
Bomber Strike Packages with Chinese Characteristics
This book chapter traces the development of China's bomber strike packages and assesses how these flights support operational training for Chinese air force wartime missions.
Jun 10, 2021
Report
Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era: An Analytic Framework and Seven Case Studies
The authors examine how China's approach to deterrence signalling is evolving along with its expanding objectives, growing military capabilities, and the availability of new communication channels—and how regional countries should respond.
May 27, 2021
Journal Article
Exploring Chinese Military Thinking on Social Media Manipulation Against Taiwan
This article addresses a gap in the current policy discussion, provides evidence of Chinese military planning for covert manipulation of Taiwanese social media, and explores how its interest in and tactics for social media manipulation have evolved over time.
May 19, 2021
Journal Article
Dare to Face the "Strong Enemy 强敌": How Xi Jinping Has Made the PLA Talk About the United States
The PLA's focus on the U.S. as its benchmark for military modernization and as a potential future adversary is well known. But what is new is how the PLA talks about these efforts: under Xi, this focus on the U.S. is increasingly obvious.
May 18, 2021
Report
What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait
As part of a series of reports in which RAND researchers examine the established concepts of deterrence and develop a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships, this report explores two ongoing examples of extended deterrence.
Apr 19, 2021
Report
Implementing Restraint: Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint
Under a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments. The authors identify unanswered questions about such a strategy.
Jan 21, 2021
Report
Alternative Worldviews: Understanding Potential Trajectories of Great-Power Ideological Competition
The United States is engaged in a new era of great-power competition taking place in the realms of information, ideas, and ideology. The authors of this report analyze what a future ideological competition might look like.
Mar 12, 2020
Journal Article
Through the Looking Glass: Chinese Open Source Assessments of North Korea's Ballistic Missile Capabilities
This report examines Chinese assessments of North Korean ballistic missile capabilities between 1998 and 2017. Chinese analyses mirror Western conclusions that North Korea has a functional ICBM that can reach the U.S. with a nuclear weapon.
2020
Journal Article
Where to Next? PLA Considerations for Overseas Base Site Selection
There has been much speculation about where China's next overseas military base will be, but what does the Chinese military itself think about selecting the locations for its overseas military bases?
2020
Report
Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends
The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, forgeries, harassment, distribution of rumors, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. This report focuses on the information warfare activities of Russia and China.
Sep 4, 2019
Journal Article
Borrowing a Boat Out to Sea: The Chinese Military's Use of Social Media for Influence Operations
The Chinese military is positioning itself as one of the leading actors for hostile Chinese influence operations on social media. The PLA uses social media for covert hostile political interference operations targeting foreign countries.
2019
Journal Article
Cognitive Domain Operations: The PLA's New Holistic Concept for Influence Operations
As information becomes ever more central for Chinese warfighting, the People's Liberation Army is developing a new concept for psychological warfare in the information era called "cognitive domain operations."
2019
Journal Article
The Flag Lags but Follows: The PLA and China's Great Leap Outward
This chapter explores how China may protect its overseas interests, analyzes PLA thinking about the security dimensions of the Belt and Road Initiative, and considers three case studies on what securing China's overseas interests involves in concrete terms.
2019
Journal Article
Netizen Opinion and China's Foreign Policy: Interpreting Narratives About North Korea on Chinese Social Media
This article collects a novel dataset of thousands of Chinese-language social media posts on the leading microblog, Sina Weibo, in 2015. Analysis of this dataset reveals four multilayered popular Chinese narratives on North Korea.
2019
Report
China's Long-Range Bomber Flights: Drivers and Implications
This report examines the key drivers behind China's strategic bomber flights throughout the Asia-Pacific region, and report recommends specific responses for consideration by the U.S. Air Force, U.S. policymakers, and allies and partners.
Nov 14, 2018
Report
Assessing the Conventional Force Imbalance in Europe: Implications for Countering Russian Local Superiority
This report outlines how NATO and Russian force levels and capabilities have evolved in the post--Cold War era and what recent trends imply for the balance of capabilities in the NATO member states that border Russia in the Baltic Sea region.
Feb 5, 2018
Journal Article
Chinese Perceptions of and Responses to US Conventional Military Power
Chinese analysts view the U.S. military not only as a model for emulation but also as a serious threat, and thus China has developed capabilities designed to deter or counter U.S. military intervention.
2018
Report
People's Liberation Army Air Force Operations over Water: Maintaining Relevance in China's Changing Security Environment
The report assesses notable developments in and implications of China's emerging aerospace expeditionary and power-projection capabilities, focusing particularly on the People's Liberation Army Air Force's operations over water.
Dec 6, 2017
Journal Article
Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?
After conducting two strategic bomber flights around Taiwan in late 2016, Beijing significantly stepped up its operational tempo with at least another five flights circumnavigating the island in mid-2017.
2017
Journal Article
China Dictates Terms for Sino-Japanese Relations During First Japanese Foreign Minister Visit in Four Years
Chinese commentary on Japanese Foreign Minister Kishida Fumio's official visit to Beijing in mid-2016 highlighted the sensitivity and difficulty of mending the relationship between Asia's two most powerful countries.
2016
Journal Article
China Signals Resolve with Bomber Flights Over the South China Sea
An unprecedented display of Chinese strategic systems over disputed territories in the South China Sea reflects China's efforts to signal its resolve following a diplomatic defeat.
2016
Journal Article
Deciphering PLA Media Commentaries on North Korea: All Show or Real Talk?
Does Chinese military commentary represent accurate and authoritative views on policy toward North Korea? Are there certain military officials or publications that we should watch closely?
2015