Forecasting Wartime Depot-Level Component Workloads
The Navy needs accurate forecasts of wartime depot-level component repair workloads to size facilities, choose repair sources, and plan future depot modernization efforts. This Note describes and demonstrates a model that can be used to forecast wartime depot-level component repair workloads. The analysis highlights potential tradeoffs among stock, distribution, and repair, and demonstrates that the timing and magnitude of the depot workload are sensitive to distribution and repair times as well as to sortie and attrition rates. The study suggests that improved component management systems that shorten the repair and transportation pipelines would enhance the ability of the Navy's depots to support the operational forces in wartime.