The RAND Strategy Assessment System's Green Agent Model of Third-Country Behavior in Superpower Crises and Conflict

by Yoav Ben-Horin, Mark A. Lorell, William Schwabe, David A. Shlapak

Download

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 4.9 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback158 pages $40.00 $32.00 20% Web Discount

This Note, a revision of N-2363, provides improved figures, up-to-date RAND Strategy Assessment System terminology, and includes updated decision rules valid as of July 1986. The authors describe the third-generation, or Mark III, version of Green Agent (formerly called Scenario Agent), the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's (RSAC) rule-based computer model of third-country political-military behavior in conflicts involving one or both superpowers. The national actors modeled by Green Agent acquire data from the rest of the RSAC system and use them to define their situation, evaluate the data according to rules defining their assumed national decisionmaking styles, and produce responses which are the model's output to the RSAC system. An actor modeled by Green Agent integrates this information into a world view with three elements: (1) the extent to which it perceives itself threatened by its political-military environment, (2) how effectively it can cope with the threat, and (3) any superpower requests for the actor's cooperation or involvement. Each actor's behavior is characterized along three dimensions: the extent to which it cooperates with its superpower ally, the extent to which it involves its own armed forces, and the extent to which the actor independently uses its military assets.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.