This study, concluded in March 1989, explores the alternative shapes the European political landscape may take in the 21st century and discusses the effects of change on regional security stability and on U.S. interests. The author identifies five ways in which Europe may evolve: (1) limited reform/limited devolution, (2) retreat from reform/containment, (3) reversal of reform/bipolar confrontation, (4) Pax Europa, and (5) nationalistic confrontation. He then judges the effect of each alternative future on U.S. interests on the basis of the four criteria that have governed American foreign policy throughout this century — multilateral economic cooperation, political self-determination, the preservation of order, and the peaceful resolution of disputes.
De Santis, Hugh, The Reshaping of Europe. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1990. https://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N3043.html. Also available in print form.
De Santis, Hugh, The Reshaping of Europe, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, N-3043-DAG/USDP, 1990. As of July 15, 2021: https://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N3043.html