The Benchmark Separation Projection Method for Predicting Monthly Losses of Air Force Enlisted Personnel

by C. Peter Rydell, Kevin L. Lawson

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The Short-Term Aggregate Inventory Projection Model (SAM) is the component of the Enlisted Force Management System that makes monthly projections (for the rest of the current fiscal year) of the aggregate force (the total enlisted force across all specialties). Module 1 (the separation projection module) of SAM is designed to forecast the monthly loss and reenlistment flows that would occur in the absence of early release and early reenlistment programs. This Note describes the benchmark separation projection method of predicting monthly losses and reenlistments. This method uses data on past losses and reenlistments to estimate a set of separation rates for each month of the fiscal year for a mutually exclusive set of about 280 "decision groups." These separation rates are then applied to the current inventory to predict monthly loss and reenlistment flows for the rest of the fiscal year. The authors describe how the model works and present the detailed specifications required to implement the method.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

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