The Benchmark Separation Projection Method for Predicting Monthly Losses of Air Force Enlisted Personnel

by C. Peter Rydell, Kevin L. Lawson


Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 3.2 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.


Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback126 pages $35.00 $28.00 20% Web Discount

The Short-Term Aggregate Inventory Projection Model (SAM) is the component of the Enlisted Force Management System that makes monthly projections (for the rest of the current fiscal year) of the aggregate force (the total enlisted force across all specialties). Module 1 (the separation projection module) of SAM is designed to forecast the monthly loss and reenlistment flows that would occur in the absence of early release and early reenlistment programs. This Note describes the benchmark separation projection method of predicting monthly losses and reenlistments. This method uses data on past losses and reenlistments to estimate a set of separation rates for each month of the fiscal year for a mutually exclusive set of about 280 "decision groups." These separation rates are then applied to the current inventory to predict monthly loss and reenlistment flows for the rest of the fiscal year. The authors describe how the model works and present the detailed specifications required to implement the method.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.