Turkey

Toward the Twenty-First Century

by Paul B. Henze

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This Note discusses the most important trends in Turkey's political, economic, and social development, focusing on the last decade's progress and on future prospects. The study finds that Turkey will build on its record of stability and economic accomplishment during the 1980s to maintain an effective political and social system and to make further economic progress during the 1990s. Turkey will balance orientations toward Europe, the Middle East, and new republics of the Soviet Union (which are mostly Muslim and Turkic) during the 1990s while continuing to look toward the United States as its principal security partner within NATO. Prospects for continued economic progress are good, though persistent inflation, growing budget deficits, and the need for privatization of state economic enterprises require serious action. Finally, while Turkey will likely be very politically and socially cohesive and the standing of the military will remain high, military influence on government will wane.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

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