Lanchester Models for Phase II Insurgency
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A presentation of deterministic forms of Lanchester's Equations developed for application to Phase II insurgency, a ground conflict that has not yet escalated into traditional positional war. Three types of military activity are identified and modeled: (1) skirmish, with maneuver used on both sides and surprise not a major factor; (2) ambush, in which, because of the necessity of surprise, the attackers' weapon efficiencies are undergoing rapid and significant change during the early stages of conflict; and (3) siege, where there is an attack on a fixed-perimeter fortification (typically, strategic hamlets). The effects of captured-in-action and troop morale as manifest in battle-stress desertions are included in each case. Numerical solutions for illustrative parameters are obtained by digital computer.
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