Relating Rebellion to the Environment

An Econometric Approach

by Edward John Mitchell


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A proposal that econometric methods be used to test theories about the determinants of rebellion. A "rebellion equation" can be estimated directly, provided the variables are exogenous — that is, determined by factors other than rebellion. If it is assumed that this equation, presenting a measure of rebellion on one side and exogenous variables on the other, can be approximated by an equation linear in the parameters, then simple least-squares linear multiple regression can be applied to estimate the parameters and to test hypotheses concerning them. This approach has been used in Vietnam and is now being applied to the postwar Huk uprising in the Philippines.

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