Experiments in Group Prediction
Download Free Electronic Document
|PDF file||0.4 MB||
Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.
Purchase Print Copy
|Add to Cart||Paperback13 pages||$20.00||$16.00 20% Web Discount|
The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments. The method has three basic features: (1) It elicits individual opinion, usually by questionnaire, but opinions are not attributed to specific individuals when communicated to the group. (2) It provides controlled feedback: An exercise is conducted in several rounds, opinions generated during one round being fed back to the group on the next round, usually in the form of statistical summaries. (3) Group opinion is expressed in terms of a statistical score. In most cases, there is a pronounced convergence of opinion with iteration; a wide spread on the initial round decreases monotonically on succeeding rounds, principally between the first and second. Where accuracy of response can be checked, it is shown to increase with iteration. Recent Rand experiments have focused on the use of information that can be readily verified as a means of further investigating the efficacy of the Delphi technique.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.