Download

Download Free Electronic Document

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 0.4 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback13 pages $20.00 $16.00 20% Web Discount

The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments. The method has three basic features: (1) It elicits individual opinion, usually by questionnaire, but opinions are not attributed to specific individuals when communicated to the group. (2) It provides controlled feedback: An exercise is conducted in several rounds, opinions generated during one round being fed back to the group on the next round, usually in the form of statistical summaries. (3) Group opinion is expressed in terms of a statistical score. In most cases, there is a pronounced convergence of opinion with iteration; a wide spread on the initial round decreases monotonically on succeeding rounds, principally between the first and second. Where accuracy of response can be checked, it is shown to increase with iteration. Recent Rand experiments have focused on the use of information that can be readily verified as a means of further investigating the efficacy of the Delphi technique.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.