Cover: Experiments in Group Prediction

Experiments in Group Prediction

Published 1968

by Norman Crolee Dalkey

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The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments. The method has three basic features: (1) It elicits individual opinion, usually by questionnaire, but opinions are not attributed to specific individuals when communicated to the group. (2) It provides controlled feedback: An exercise is conducted in several rounds, opinions generated during one round being fed back to the group on the next round, usually in the form of statistical summaries. (3) Group opinion is expressed in terms of a statistical score. In most cases, there is a pronounced convergence of opinion with iteration; a wide spread on the initial round decreases monotonically on succeeding rounds, principally between the first and second. Where accuracy of response can be checked, it is shown to increase with iteration. Recent Rand experiments have focused on the use of information that can be readily verified as a means of further investigating the efficacy of the Delphi technique.

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