Population Growth : Investigation of a Hypothesis.

T. P. Schultz

Expert InsightsPublished 1969

An empirical examination of a family planning model built around three factors that are assumed to exert a systematic effect on birth rate: (1) a family-size goal or the number of surviving children that parents want; (2) the death rate, mainly among offspring, which necessitates a compensating adjustment in birth rates to achieve any particular family-size goal; and (3) uncertainty in the family formation process, in which deaths, births, and remarriage are unpredictable. The model also allows examination of the phenomenon of the substantially lower birth rate among urban women when compared with that among rural women. Data from Colombia, supplemented by data from Puerto Rico and Taiwan, give general support to the working hypothesis that variations in reproductive behavior are the outcome of parent behavioral responses to the opportunities and constraints of their environment. The selective expansion of health, education, and welfare programs may do much to encourage parents to seek fewer children. 58 pp.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web Only
  • Year: 1969
  • Pages: 58
  • Document Number: P-4056-1

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Schultz, T. P., Population Growth : Investigation of a Hypothesis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1969. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4056-1.html.
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