The Probable State of Computer Technology by 1980, with Some Implications for Education.
Reviews significant computing developments that will probably be in common use by 1980. Large computers--meaning fast and powerful, but not physically large--and minicomputers that may be the size of today's portable radios will both contribute to the feasibility of individualized computer-assisted instruction, the former through multiprogramming and switchable microprograms. While children should probably learn to type, excessive reliance on keyboard input will be reduced by graphics terminals. Spoken input will probably not be widespread by 1980, but access to computers via simple English written commands should be routine. Programs should be as accessible as books are now. Computing networks should be common, linking small local computers to larger distant machines. Improved communication links, probably including two-way cable TV, can bring equal computer opportunity to teachers, students, and administrators of all schools--if economic and institutional barriers can be overcome. 10 pp. Ref.