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Analysis of the relative significance of key variables in determining the changing quality of Air Force recruits over time. Assuming a constant manpower requirement, the quality of Air Force recruits can be written as a function of the military-to-civilian earnings ratio, draft pressure, the size of the relevant population pool of eligible youths, and the unemployment rate. A model is specified for determining the quality of volunteers in terms of the AFQT (Armed Forces Qualifying Test) scores. Time series data are used to estimate the parameters; the data consist of quarterly observations from the first quarter of 1959 through the second quarter of 1967. A hypothetical but plausible scenario is presented to show how the model can be used to determine a specified quality level and to estimate the cost of achieving that level. 28 pp. Bibliog.

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