Policy and the Study of the Future
Given Complexity, Trends or Processes?
ResearchPublished 1972
At this early stage in the scientific study of the future for policy purposes, a number of important methodological choices face social scientists. One important choice concerns the relative utility of forecasting by extrapolating trends or by using process models. The former is the more familiar method, and the latter is considered to be the more promising. After introducing a minimum number of essential concepts in the formal study of political systems by way of presenting an illustrative process model, we explore the effect that complexity has on the analytical tractability of the system. Consequent implications for the scientific study of policy are sketched out as appropriate.
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Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Available
- Year: 1972
- Print Format: Paperback
- Paperback Pages: 33
- Paperback Price: $20.00
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/P4912
- Document Number: P-4912
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Brunner, Ronald D. and Garry D. Brewer, Policy and the Study of the Future: Given Complexity, Trends or Processes? RAND Corporation, P-4912, 1972. As of October 13, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4912.html
Brunner, Ronald D. and Garry D. Brewer, Policy and the Study of the Future: Given Complexity, Trends or Processes? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1972. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4912.html. Also available in print form.
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