The Sensitivity and Comparison of General Atmospheric Circulation Models

M. Warshaw

Expert InsightsPublished 1972

Describes RAND work testing the sensitivity of the Mintz-Arakawa global atmospheric model (R-877-ARPA) to changed boundary conditions, compared with random perturbations. The main experiment (R-908-ARPA) consisted of (1) running the simulation for 60 days normally, (2) rerunning it with two sets of random differences, and (3) repeating each of the 3 with the Arctic ice replaced by cold sea water. Analysis of variance showed that many changes in simulated temperature, geopotential height, zonal wind, and heat transport are statistically attributable to removing the Arctic ice. This sensitivity testing procedure is economically unacceptable, since each simulated day costs about $230 in 360/91 time. Various statistical procedures are discussed that are now being tested with real and simulated data. A five-year climatic database is being prepared from 12-hourly NCAR reports, and a data retrieval system that permits easier comparisons is being implemented. (Presented at the Second DOT Conference on the Climatic Impact Assessment Program.)

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Warshaw, M., The Sensitivity and Comparison of General Atmospheric Circulation Models. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1972. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4933.html.
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