Problems in Avionics Life-Cycle Analysis.
There is a need to know much more about life-cycle costs for weapon systems and their subsystems. Direct costs for development, procurement, and operations have continued to spiral upward. Of interest are the life-cycle costs of new generation avionics subsystems in contemporary weapon systems. These avionics have high procurement costs, higher support costs, and appear to dominate the weapon system maintenance costs. This paper examines the difficulties characterizing contemporary avionics life-cycle analysis. The uncertainty associated with estimating avionics life-cycle costs is related to the life-cycle states of weapon systems. The following areas are reviewed: current avionics industry costing methods, uncertainty in life-cycle cost modeling and estimating, military cost data availability vs. requirements, and military institutional disincentives. Recommendations are made to improve avionics life-cycle analysis: the use of explicit stochastic estimations, standards for test and design, new management policies, and improved data collection. 20 pp.