Numerical Modeling of Climatic Change: A Review of Problems and Prospects.
The development of numerical general circulation models and of statistical-dynamical models is reviewed from the point of view of their inherent limitations for the simulation of climatic change. The performance of selected atmospheric models is summarized in terms of their simulation of the zonally-averaged January sea-level pressure and precipitation rate. The further improvement of such models appears to rest with the introduction of more adequate parameterizations for convection and the surface boundary layer, and perhaps most importantly for climatic simulations, with the coupling of interactive models of the ocean, ice sheets and land surface character. The future of climate modeling is seen to involve the use of a hierarchy of models of various degrees of resolution. A strategy is outlined for the systematic investigation of climatic change on various time scales with the use of numerical models, including the necessary computation and analysis. 24 pp. Ref.