The Technology of Precision Guidance

Changing Weapon Priorities, New Risks, New Opportunities

James Digby

Expert InsightsPublished 1975

Discusses questions raised by the new wide availability of precision guided munitions (PGMs). The paper discusses implications of these weapons on large-scale nonnuclear war, use by smaller countries, trends in arms transfer and ideas for arms control. Strategies must be developed which cut risks by seeking carefully delimited goals. PGM technology facilitates these strategies by permitting military power to be applied precisely. Speculations on defense industry trends are discussed. The conclusions are: (1) Nonnuclear PGMs make smaller states and NATO more defensible, thus short-run stability is increased. (2) The pace of war will be faster. (3) There is hope that the trend in the 20th century toward including civilian populations as targets can be reversed. (4) This is a good time to revise vague theater nuclear policies. (5) PGMs will play an important part in making or countering a threat to use limited nuclear force. (6) Arms buildup in the middle East implies problems for world stability. (This is an expanded version of P-5495.)

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Digby, James, The Technology of Precision Guidance: Changing Weapon Priorities, New Risks, New Opportunities. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1975. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P5537.html.
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