The demographic context of educational policy planning

Peter A. Morrison

Expert InsightsPublished 1976

Society's ability to meet the demand for education is influenced by trends in population growth and distribution. This paper illustrates how demographic analysis might strengthen educational policy planning. Sizeable fluctuations of elementary, high school and college populations are in prospect for the remainder of this century, along with shifts in local demand for schooling in urban, suburban and exurban areas. Meanwhile, several foreseeable demographic shifts may give rise to a teacher shortage sometime in the 1980s. The possible imminence of a future "promotion squeeze" in the labor market may lead to a trend of mid-life career switching, intensifying future demands for adult education. Educational policy planners can improve their basis for making choices by using demographic analysis that provides continuously updated projections. Adaptation to demographic changes would require foreseeing future problems and needs and devising mechanisms to guide trends in ways to avoid or ease the predicted future problems.

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Morrison, Peter A., The demographic context of educational policy planning. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1976. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P5592.html.
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