Cover: Local labor markets and cyclic components in demand for college trained manpower

Local labor markets and cyclic components in demand for college trained manpower

Published 1978

by James P. Smith, Finis Welch

Purchase Print Copy

 Format Price
Add to Cart Paperback31 pages $20.00

Examines earnings of synthetic cohorts contained in the Current Population Surveys (CPS) for each year from 1968 to 1975. The CPS data are useful to test for the importance of local labor markets because individuals can be assigned to markets by calendar year and area of residence. This study finds that contrary to the established conviction, wage rates are sensitive to business cycles. This sensitivity appears, holding industry constant, to be skill neutral so that business cycle movements apparently explain little of the recent time series behavior of relative wages of college graduates. Furthermore, the paper has identified some important movements in wage rates among areas. These wage differentials seem more sensitive to employment deviations and trends than were initially expected.

This report is part of the RAND paper series. The paper was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.