Forecasts energy demands of non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) in the next decade, and considers implications for U.S. policies concerning NOLDCs. The forecasted NOLDC portion of world imports in 1990 ranges from 8.3 percent to 34.6 percent. This wide range reflects uncertainty stemming from differences in (1) scenarios for NOLDC economic growth and world oil prices, (2) definition and measurement of variables used in models, and (3) model specifications. The uncertainty may present problems for U.S. policy: NOLDCs' rapid economic growth (a goal of U.S. foreign policy) would increase NOLDC demand for oil and put upward pressure on world oil prices and supplies--a situation U.S. energy policy seeks to avoid. U.S. efforts to encourage "soft energy paths" (one possible resolution of the policy conflict) might be resented by NOLDCs. However, opportunities exist in the coinciding U.S. and NOLDC desires for expanded oil supplies and lower prices.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.