Europe in 2006: A Speculative Sketch

by Marten van Heuven


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This paper attempts to answer the questions what Europe will be like in a decade, and what US policy should be with respect to Europe. The answers come in four propositions. Demographic, economic, and social factors will make Europe an unsettled place. Europe will be more occupied than now with world trends that will impact on Europe. Europe will be experimenting with a variety of institutional responses; these experiments will satisfy only in part. American interests in a secure and stable Europe require policies that facilitate a constructive Russian role, promote reform in East Central Europe, ease the effects of a strong Germany, bring ECE--and Balkan--economies into the European Union, anchor European security in a transatlantic relationship framed by NATO, OSCE and other organizations, and by US presence and involvement, help produce the trust necessary to enhance the objective of a Europe whole and free.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

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