Ten Guidelines for the Simulation of Weather-Sensitive Military Operations

Weather and Warplanes II

by R. E. Huschke

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Directions for quantifying the value of weather service in military operations through the use of computer models, illustrated by RAND experience with the STRICOM model. Weather and forecasting effects should be built into models of weather-sensitive operations, since it is very difficult to insert them into any existing model. The suggested procedure is: (1) Learn the operation from the operator's viewpoint. (2) Determine acceptable measures of operational effectiveness. (3) Keep the model as simple as credibility allows. (4) Determine the constraints on decision flexibil- ity. (5) Quantify the nonweather decision aspects. (6) Quantify weather effects on each component activity. (7) Determine ways of expressing forecasting skills. (8) Obtain and structure the required weather data, since it is seldom available in the form needed. (9) Establish decision rules and effectiveness criteria. (10) Write credible scenarios for the model. Results from the STRICOM weather/decision model are presented to demonstrate the desirability of the Air Weather Service engaging in such analysis. (See also R-740, R-774.)

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