A Computer Program and Model for Predicting the Supply of Air Force Volunteers

by Alvin A. Cook, C. M. Rutherford

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Describes a prediction technique and a computer program developed from a model designed to help the Air Force understand the enlistment behavior of volunteers and to assess the feasibility of an all volunteer armed force. The model determines the supply of volunteers as a function of the expected net advantages of military life relative to civilian life, the unemployment rate in the civilian economy, and draft pressure. With these data, the Air Force can use the computer program to predict two statistics for any given period: (1) the mean level of volunteers, and (2) a conservative and a liberal estimate of the number of recruits. (See also RM-6360, RM-6361.)

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