Cover: The Statistical Analysis of Simulated Climatic Change

The Statistical Analysis of Simulated Climatic Change

Published 1973

by M. Warshaw

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This report describes research undertaken for the Department of Transportation's Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP), a primary concern of which is the study of an aircraft fleet operating in the stratosphere and the effects such aircraft might have on planetary life. To achieve this goal, CIAP must rely heavily on computer simulation of the global atmospheric circulation, for through such simulation will prediction of the earth's climate be possible. This report deals with interpreting results of computer simulations. It presents a series of statistical tests, embedded in a computer program, that permits the investigator to ascertain whether the simulated climatic changes are simply random fluctuations of a normal global circulation or are actually caused by some purposeful change in the physical system.

This report is part of the RAND report series. The report was a product of RAND from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

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