First-Term Reenlistment Intentions of Avionics Technicians: A Quantitative Analysis.

Focusing on a highly skilled field with acute manpower shortages, the author analyzes first-term reenlistment intentions from a survey sample of Air Force electronics technicians to develop an understanding of the factors affecting an individual's propensity to reenlist in or withdraw from military service. The military reenlistment decision is hypothesized as a continuous process during the enlistee's first term. The study provides a general statistical approach for determining a small set of key factors that explain and predict first-term reenlistment intentions. The author employs a range of methodologies, some not normally applied to manpower problems, including principal components, regression, discriminant, and logistic analyses. The results center on six key explanatory factors: (1) the military career intentions at initial enlistment; (2) job satisfaction; (3) marital status; (4) economic incentives; (5) length of service; (6) desire to supervise others. Based on these findings, manpower policies are recommended for increasing the retention of skilled technicians during and at the end of the first term. 85 pp. Ref.