A Three-Dimensional Model for Estuaries and Coastal Seas

Presents the simulation of tide and wind effects in St. George Basin and Bristol Bay, part of the Eastern Bering Sea. The model is developed to establish a basis for predicting oil spill trajectories and for risk analysis of proposed oil lease areas within this coastal sea. Currents in this area are strongly tide-dominated and consistently nonhomogeneous, requiring a three-dimensional model to resolve vertical distribution of energy density and shear stress gradient. The procedure for model setup, adjustment, and verification is presented. For the verification run, predicted tides at open boundaries are used to drive the model. The computed current distributions are then compared against the observed values so that the model's predictability can be evaluated. Excellent agreements are found for stations where field data are available. The model forms a good basis for predicting responses of the bay system under forces induced by wind, tide, and local density variations.