The Demand for Oil and Energy in Developing Countries
How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade? How will their economic growth affect world demand? To answer these questions, the authors have tried to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next ten years. Although the focus is mainly on demand for oil, some attention is given to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. The data used in fitting the models cover 77 NOLDCs, which, in 1976, accounted for 79 percent of total oil consumption by all 124 NOLDCs. The uncertainties associated with the forecasts are spelled out, as are the income and price elasticities on which the forecasts are based. Finally, the authors consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for U.S. energy policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.