The Tradeoff Between Consumption and Military Expenditures for the Soviet Union During the 1980s

by Mark Myron Hopkins, Michael Kennedy, Marilee Lawrence

Download

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 3.7 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback128 pages $35.00 $28.00 20% Web Discount

This study develops a relatively new approach to the modeling of the Soviet economy that uses optimal control theory. The resulting Hopkins-Kennedy optimal control model is used to address the primary research question of the study: What will be the tradeoff between Soviet consumption and defense spending during the 1980s? Section II is devoted to the model. Its strength is indicated by a number of historical scenarios in Sec. III in which the model makes predictions which can be checked against what actually occurred. Section IV examines the implications of an alternative view of Soviet economic history, put forth by Rosefielde and Lee. Section V examines demographic change, in terms of both growth of the labor force and its ethnic composition. The impact of differing rates of productivity growth and a scenario in which poor weather continues into the next decade are studied in Sec. VI. Section VII describes the impact of the increasing cost of energy. Foreign trade, which is likely to play a central role in the Soviet economy in the next decade, is examined in detail in Sec. VIII. Section IX compares a best case and a worse case scenario.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation report series. The report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.