Cover: Future Emission Scenarios for Chemicals That May Deplete Stratospheric Ozone

Future Emission Scenarios for Chemicals That May Deplete Stratospheric Ozone

Published 1988

by James K. Hammitt, Frank Camm, P. S. Connell, W. E. Mooz, Kathleen A. Wolf, Donald J. Wuebbles, Anil Bamezai


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Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone, and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90 percent probability interval for the chemicals' joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. Calculated ozone depletion in the year 2040 ranges between 2 and 18 percent.

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