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Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone, and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90 percent probability interval for the chemicals' joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. Calculated ozone depletion in the year 2040 ranges between 2 and 18 percent.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Report series. The report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.