Subjective Probability-Based Scenarios for Uncertain Input Parameters: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
Jan 1, 1990
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Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone, and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90 percent probability interval for the chemicals' joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. Calculated ozone depletion in the year 2040 ranges between 2 and 18 percent.
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