Grade 7 nonsmokers and experimenters (N = 4,165) were compared on a wide range of risk factors for future smoking derived from four prominent theories and whether these factors predicted daily smoking at Grade 12. Early experimenters scored consistently higher than did early nonsmokers on risk factors for future smoking. Common predictors of Grade 12 daily smoking for both groups included early exposure to an important adult who smokes, being young for one’s cohort, and weak academic bonds. For Grade 7 non-smokers, unique predictors of daily smoking included exposure to pro-smoking social influences (cigarette offers, sibling who smokes), early binge drinking, and being female. Unique predictors for early experimenters were less sharply delineated, although certain family factors appeared to be more important for this group. African Americans and Hispanics were also less likely to progress from experimental to daily smoking. Results point to the importance of adapting prevention efforts to the special needs of early nonsmokers and experimenters.
Originally published in: Journal of Applied Social Psychology, v. 32, no. 8, August 2002, pp. 1588-1603.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation reprint series. The Reprint was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1992 to 2011 that represented previously published journal articles, book chapters, and reports with the permission of the publisher. RAND reprints were formally reviewed in accordance with the publisher's editorial policy and compliant with RAND's rigorous quality assurance standards for quality and objectivity. For select current RAND journal articles, see External Publications.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.