Cover: Simulation of Adaptive Response

Simulation of Adaptive Response

A Model of Drug Interdiction

by Jonathan P. Caulkins, Gordon Crawford, Peter Reuter

This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation of the smuggling and interdiction of illicit drugs that explicitly allows for adaptation across routes and modes. The model is used to examine several issues surrounding the interdiction of cocaine shipments into the U.S. It suggests that back-of-the-envelope estimates of interdiction's effectiveness may be overly optimistic if they neglect the existence of a backstop technology (smuggling small shipments over land), the concavity of smugglers' costs as a function of the fraction of all routes on which the interdiction rate is increased, and the fact that not all smuggling costs are caused by interdiction. When one considers these factors, it appears that only under truly exceptional circumstances would one expect increasing interdiction to have a substantial impact on U.S. cocaine consumption.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Reprint series. The Reprint was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1992 to 2011 that represented previously published journal articles, book chapters, and reports with the permission of the publisher. RAND reprints were formally reviewed in accordance with the publisher's editorial policy and compliant with RAND's rigorous quality assurance standards for quality and objectivity. For select current RAND journal articles, see External Publications.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.