Forecasting Enrollments for Immigrant Entry-port School Districts

by Peter A. Morrison

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This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. The author adapts existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise "early warning" thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions.

Originally published in: Demography, v. 37, no. 4, November 2000, pp. 499-510.

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