A Priori Demand Prediction

A Case Study of B-52 Airframe Parts

by T. A. Goldman

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A study which deals with predicting the demand for airframe parts in the absence of consumption data to determine whether the level of demand is related to physical and operational characteristics of parts. In particular, an attempt is made to predict the demand for B-52 airframe spare parts with the help of B-47 consumption experience. The results of these tests are then compared with the reported consumption of the same parts during the early phase-in of the B-52 weapon system. In addition, some of the theoretical foundations for the concept of service-life factors are discussed, together with the relationship of these to the demand predictions in the present study.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.