Some implications of uncertainties in the Hiroshima explosion

by B. F. Goeller, R. D. Specht

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A consideration of possible implications of uncertainties about the Hiroshima bomb in estimating nuclear prompt effects damage from weapons in the megaton range. Within the range of uncertainties considered, that relating to the scaling exponent made the greatest difference. Variations in yield and wind pattern followed, both more important than the various possible height of burst values. In counterforce attacks that are constrained to avoid collateral civil damage, the uncertainties can have significant effects on such damage and on the selection of targets.

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