Improved Forecasting Methods for Item Management and Maintenance Manpower Requirements.

by George S. Fishman

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A description of improved methods for forecasting depot maintenance manpower requirements and depot item repair levels to facilitate effective long-term depot logistics planning. These methods improve on those currently used by making better use of available data and by being more responsive to specialized needs, such as providing item forecasts for a single weapon system when the item is common to more than one weapon system. Some specific problems the new models attempt to resolve are the proper weighting of data; inclusion of sorties as well as flying hours as factors in base item generation; the effects of phase-in, base equipment augmentation, and item modification; and the influence of past operational activity on present item generation. Flowcharts and computing algorithms are provided to assist in implementing the suggestions without a major revamping of the present system. The study concludes with a suggestion for comparing the present method with the proposed method based on real-life data. 108 pp.

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