The Huk Rebellion in the Philippines

Quantitative Approaches

by Harvey A. Averch, John Koehler

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A statistical study of conditions related to control of barrios in Central Luzon by Huk rebels. Using several different models, results showed that Huk actions — their terror and coercion — as measured by killings, was a stronger explanation than social conditions. Contrary to the findings of earlier studies, the proportions of Pampangans and of sugar growing were negatively related to Huk control. Tenancy was a factor — land ownership was negatively related to Huk control — but not a dominant one. The findings are borne out by a survey of 1550 Filipinos, showing that persons in Huk areas had about the same attitudes as those elsewhere (but nonresponse was 50 percent, compared with 33 percent elsewhere). Appended extracts from interviews with 12 Huk prisoners suggest a split between at least two factions, idealistic Maoists and simple criminals.

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