Parametric Flyaway Cost Estimating Relationships for Manned and Remotely Piloted Military Aircraft

Thomas Light, Fred Timson, Obaid Younossi

ResearchPublished Sep 26, 2024

In the past decade, the services have become more reliant on remotely piloted aircraft (RPA), particularly in the area of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. To inform U.S. Air Force decisionmakers on the cost differences of manned aircraft and RPA, the authors compiled data for 30 different military fixed-wing aircraft—five of which are remotely piloted—and extrapolated the average unit flyaway cost associated with producing the first 100 units of each platform. From these data, parametric cost-estimating relationships that vary with aircraft characteristics—including empty weight, whether the aircraft has stealth technology, and whether the aircraft is manned or remotely piloted—were developed using regression analysis. In this report, the authors summarize the analysis findings that examine the extent to which unit flyaway costs of RPA differ from those of manned aircraft. This research was completed in 2015 and has not been subsequently revised.

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Light, Thomas, Fred Timson, and Obaid Younossi, Parametric Flyaway Cost Estimating Relationships for Manned and Remotely Piloted Military Aircraft, RAND Corporation, RR-1618/1-AF, 2024. As of October 10, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1618z1.html
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Light, Thomas, Fred Timson, and Obaid Younossi, Parametric Flyaway Cost Estimating Relationships for Manned and Remotely Piloted Military Aircraft. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1618z1.html.
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This research was prepared for the Department of the Air Force and conducted by the Resource Management Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE

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