Cover: A new travel demand model for London
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A new travel demand model for London

Estimation of the mode and destination choice models

by James Fox, Bhanu Patruni, Andrew Daly

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RAND Europe, working in collaboration with Jacobs, SYSTRA and Mott MacDonald, were commissioned by Transport for London (TfL) to develop a new strategic travel model for London, termed the New Demand Model (NDM). This will be used to develop strategic land use and transport policy scenarios to assist with prioritisation and supporting the case for sustained investment of billions of pounds in London's transport systems. The new model is expected to enhance TfL's strategic modelling capability and reflect recent behavioural changes identified by the 'Drivers of Demand' study in London.

This report documents RAND Europe's work to develop new mode-destination choice models for the NDM.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Modelling assumptions

  • Chapter Three

    Data

  • Chapter Four

    Nested logit model specification

  • Chapter Five

    Nested logit model results

  • Chapter Six

    Nested logit model validation

  • Chapter Seven

    Cross-nested logit models

  • Chapter Eight

    Summary and recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Tour building note

  • Appendix B

    Model parameter results

  • Appendix C

    Cost skims for example OD pairs

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was commissioned by Transport for London (TfL) and conducted by RAND Europe.

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