News Release
China and U.S. Can Reduce the Risk of War by Learning from History's Blunders
Dec 2, 2014
The history of wars caused by misjudgments, from Napoleon's invasion of Russia to America's invasion of Iraq, reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models that were seriously at odds with objective reality. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars analyzes eight historical examples of strategic blunders regarding war and peace and four examples of decisions that turned out well, and then applies those lessons to the current Sino-American case.
Includes all revisions.
Format | File Size | Notes |
---|---|---|
PDF file | 1.8 MB | Best for desktop computers. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
ePub file | 4.5 MB | Best for mobile devices. On desktop computers and some mobile devices, you may need to download an eBook reader to view ePub files. Calibre is an example of a free and open source e-book library management application. |
mobi file | 10.1 MB | Best for Kindle 1-3. On desktop computers and some mobile devices, you may need to download an eBook reader to view mobi files. Amazon Kindle is the most popular reader for mobi files. |
Posted on December 4, 2014.
Format | File Size | Notes |
---|---|---|
PDF file | 0.1 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
Chinese language version (summary only)
Format | File Size | Notes |
---|---|---|
PDF file | 0.3 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
Format | List Price | Price | |
---|---|---|---|
Add to Cart | Paperback328 pages | $49.50 | $39.60 20% Web Discount |
The history of wars caused by misjudgments, from Napoleon's invasion of Russia to America's invasion of Iraq, reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models, or simplified representations of their worlds, that were seriously at odds with objective reality. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars analyzes eight historical examples of strategic blunders regarding war and peace and four examples of decisions that turned out well, and then applies those lessons to the current Sino-American case. Leaders' egos, intuitions, unwarranted self-confidence, and aversion to information that contradicted their views prevented them from correcting their models. Yet advisors and bureaucracies can be inadequate safeguards and can, out of fawning or fear, reinforce leaders' flawed thinking.
War between China and the United States is more likely to occur by blunder than from rational premeditation. Yet flawed Chinese and American cognitive models of one another are creating strategic distrust, which could increase the danger of misjudgment by either or both, the likelihood of crises, and the possibility of war. Although these American and Chinese leaders have unprecedented access to information, there is no guarantee they will use it well when faced with choices concerning war and peace. They can learn from Blinders, Blunders, and Wars.
As a general remedy, the authors recommend the establishment of a government body providing independent analysis and advice on war-and-peace decisions by critiquing information use, assumptions, assessments, reasoning, options, and plans. For the Sino-U.S. case, they offer a set of measures to bring the models each has of the other into line with objective reality.
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
The Information Value Chain and the Use of Information for Strategic Decisionmaking
Chapter Three
Napoleon's Invasion of Russia, 1812
Chapter Four
The American Decision to Go to War with Spain, 1898
Chapter Five
Germany's Decision to Conduct Unrestricted U-boat Warfare, 1916
Chapter Six
Woodrow Wilson's Decision to Enter World War I, 1917
Chapter Seven
Hitler's Decision to Invade the USSR, 1941
Chapter Eight
Japan's Attack on Pearl Harbor, 1941
Chapter Nine
U.S.-Soviet Showdown over the Egyptian Third Army, 1973
Chapter Ten
China's Punitive War Against Vietnam, 1979
Chapter Eleven
The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, 1979
Chapter Twelve
The Soviet Decision Not to Invade Poland, 1981
Chapter Thirteen
Argentina's Invasion of the Falklands (Malvinas), 1982
Chapter Fourteen
The U.S. Invasion of Iraq, 2003
Chapter Fifteen
Making Sense of Making Mistakes
Chapter Sixteen
Possible Remedies
Chapter Seventeen
The Sino-U.S. Case
Chapter Eighteen
Findings and Recommendations
This report is a product of the RAND Corporation's continuing program of self-initiated research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND's contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.