Cover: Methodology of the RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll

Methodology of the RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll

Published Oct 3, 2014

by Arie Kapteyn, Erik Meijer, Bas Weerman

Download Free Electronic Document

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 0.6 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (CPEP) is conducted within the American Life Panel, which is an internet panel recruited through traditional probability sampling to ensure representativeness. The CPEP differs from other polls in that it asks the same respondents repeatedly about their voting preferences. Thus, it leads to more stable outcomes and changes are due to individuals' changing their minds and not due to random sampling fluctuations. The CPEP is also different because it asks respondents to state their preferences for a candidate and the likelihood that they will vote in probabilistic terms (percent chance), which has been shown to improve forecasts several months before the election. This documents gives a detailed account of the methodology underlying the CPEP.

This research was conducted in RAND's RAND Labor and Population unit.

This report is part of the RAND research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.