Recalibrating Alliance Contributions

Changing Policy Environment and Military Alliances

by Tatsuro Yoda

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According to the U.S. National Security Strategy, the United States needs to “strengthen alliances to defeat global terrorism and work to prevent attacks against us and our friends.” This dissertation develops an analytic framework to explore ways to encourage contributions from allies that are beneficial to the United States with specific reference to Japan’s Host Nation Support program (HNS) for the U.S. Forces in Japan, The author examines Japan’s alliance contributions, the background environment of the U.S.-Japan alliance during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, and key causes for the change in Japan’s alliance contributions. He analyzes the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance over the next 10-20 years, the plausible direction of changes in Japan’s alliance contributions and how the U.S. can influence that direction. Finally, he examines the short-term future of the alliance, focusing on the next Special Measures Agreement for the HNS in 2006, Japan’s stance toward that agreement, and effective U.S. negotiating tactics.

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This document was submitted as a dissertation in June, 2005 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Charles Wolf, Jr. (Chair), Kevin Lewis, and Greg Treverton. Richard Zeckhauser was the outside reader for the dissertation.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Dissertation series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.

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