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Non-combatants have become an important aspect of U.S. military operations in urban areas. Recent experience shows how non-combatants can affect the United States’ ability to meet tactical and strategic objectives in engagements across the spectrum of warfare. However, there is currently little systematic research on civilian behavior within the defense community, including the military modeling community. As the policy questions about dealing with civilians continue to gain in importance, further research on non-combatants would be beneficial. This dissertation reviews recent urban operation campaigns and attempts to provide background research that will assist in incorporating non-combatants into models, simulations, training scenarios, and other analytic tools in a more formal way. It identifies non-combatant behavior from recent urban operations that have affected U.S. military activities. It recommends a layered approach to civilian behavior, beginning with basic population density and other demographic characteristics. To this, it adds simple and then complex behaviors. This dissertation also assesses methods for modeling large numbers of non-combatants and proposes using agent-based modeling (ABM). Introducing agent-based non-combatants into existing models and simulations also has the potential to extend current force-on-force models and allow them to be used in examining urban operations. This is an important practical consideration and an alternative to waiting, possibly for years, until new urban combat models are built, tested, and formally accredited.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Methodology and Literature Review

  • Chapter Three

    Case Studies

  • Chapter Four

    Populating Models with Non-combatants

  • Chapter Five

    Simple Non-combatant Behaviors

  • Chapter Six

    Complex Non-combatant Behaviors

  • Chapter Seven

    Conclusions

Research conducted by

This document was submitted as a dissertation in March, 2006 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of James T. Quinlivan (Chair), Steven C. Bankes, Russell W. Glenn, and Randall Steeb.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation dissertation series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.

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