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State instability, fragility and conflict pose a global security threat. We expect to see an increase in the use of conflict prevention, cessation, and recovery interventions in coming years as a result. Practitioners still lack answers to questions of critical importance from designing effective interventions relating to the appropriate modes of intervention before and during conflict; effective disarmament and reintegration strategies for combatants; and necessary procedures for consolidating post-conflict peace.

This dissertation uses a variety of social science research methods to answer three research questions related to these issues. How well do current models of faction behavior predict faction participation, behavior and overall levels of violence in a specific conflict? What effects do aid-funded or informal reintegration programs have on returning soldiers? And, how can useful degrees of trust and cooperation be created in a post-conflict environment?

This dissertation should be of particular interest to those engaged in designing and implementing conflict prevention and post-conflict recovery programs.

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This document was submitted as a dissertation in March 2015 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Krishna Kumar (Chair), Howard Shatz, and Daniel Egel.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation dissertation series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.

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