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Military recruitment is a perennial challenge. Estimates show just 30 percent of youth are fully qualified to enlist, and many do not consider serving. To meet this challenge, the military must continually assess and adapt its recruiting approaches. This dissertation aids military recruitment planners by providing a more comprehensive understanding of how youth build and access their career and educational information networks in high school, as part of their decision-making process.
This dissertation consists of three papers. The first paper explores the many theories and factors that affect youth career and educational decision-making, integrating several disciplines that have contributed separately to understanding youth in this context. The second paper provides an exploration of two sources of data—a longitudinal survey from the U.S. Department of Education and interviews with high school juniors and newly enlisted U.S. Air Force recruits. I segment youth into seven groups of interest and evaluate how each builds and uses its information networks in high school. The third paper visualizes and describes youth information networks across groups using concepts from social network analysis. I find that youth information networks are dynamic and evolving, with four-year college-bound youth and females having the strongest networks and youth neither enrolling in college nor serving in the military having the weakest. I also find that social-emotional wellbeing, degree of focus, and motivation are important factors in how youth build their networks and make career and educational decisions. I then provide insights and implications for military recruitment planners on how to more effectively engage with youth. This could include marketing strategies designed for the full youth life-course with multiple points of engagement and doing more to distinguish and reach out to youth in a social network context.
Table of Contents
Paper One
Youth Information Networks and Propensity to Serve in the Military: A Review of Relevant Literature
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
A Review of Decision-Making Literature
Chapter Three
Theories of Behavioral Change and Policy Interventions
Chapter Four
Next Steps
Paper Two
Youth Information Networks and Propensity to Serve in the Military: Data Collection, Methods, and Exploratory Analysis
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Data Sources and Collection
Chapter Three
Data and Methods
Chapter Four
Quantitative Analysis
Chapter Five
Qualitative Analysis
Chapter Six
Conclusion and Hypotheses
Chapter Seven
Next Steps
Appendix A
New Enlisted Recruit Interview Protocol
Appendix B
High School Student Interview Protocol
Appendix C
Variable Names and Meanings
Appendix D
Additional Descriptive Statistics
Appendix E
Correlation Analysis
Paper Three
Youth Information Networks and Propensity to Serve in the Military: Network Analysis and Policy Implications
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Social Network Analysis
Chapter Three
Youth Information Network Overview
Chapter Four
Youth Information Networks
Chapter Five
Policy Implications
Appendix A
Youth Information Networks, Freshman Year
Appendix B
Descriptive Statistics
Appendix C
Variable Names and Meanings
Appendix D
Visual Comparison of Four-Year and No College Information Networks, Junior Year
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This document was submitted as a dissertation in May 2020 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Dr. Bruce Orvis (Chair), Dr. Charles Goldman, and Dr. Jennifer Li. Dr. Harry Holzer served as the outside reader.
This publication is part of the RAND Corporation Dissertation series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.
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