Hurry Up and Wait: Over-Absorption in a Pilot Shortage

The U.S. Air Force (USAF) continues to face a significant shortage of pilots, particularly those who fly fighter aircraft. Though senior leaders have pushed to dramatically increase the production of new pilots, downstream operational squadrons are wrestling a countervailing issue: there are too few experienced and instructor pilots to timely train the growing numbers of inexperienced pilots destined to replace them – in Air Force parlance, units are suffering from over-absorption. Given the closed nature of the military aircrew management system (experienced USAF pilots can leave to the airlines, but until recently, the Air Force lacked a lateral entry path for experienced pilots from industry), the juxtaposition of these two problems presents force planners with a dilemma: how can we grow the future supply of experienced pilots when doing so inherently demands more experienced pilots than we have today? The Air Force is exploring several policy proposals to address this issue, two of which form the cornerstone of this research.

The problem is analyzed through the lens of a squadron-level, discrete-time, stochastic simulation model of USAF operational flying, which is first calibrated to represent today’s baseline performance, then modified to explore two nascent policy changes, including removal of a previously longstanding sortie minimum requirement and a comprehensive rebuilding of the fighter forge training paradigm (REFORGE). Of particular interest are the model’s two summary absorption metrics: time to flight lead (TTFL) and squadron absorption capacity, or the yearly rate at which the unit can turn inexperienced pilots into experienced ones. Results show varying degrees of improvement for each of the policies relative to their baseline cases, and are presented alongside a qualitative discussion of significant implementation considerations which lie outside the scope of the simulation model. Ultimately, this research leads to recommendations regarding Air Force data practices and the importance of a future systems-level analysis thereby enabled.