Research Brief
Isles of Scilly Travel Demand Model
Jun 4, 2007
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Submissions for capital funding to improve transport infrastructure requires estimates of the cost benefits travellers will receive from those improvements. This study provides an example of how a travel demand model was used to predict travellers’ responses and quantify their benefits from different ferry service options to the Isles of Scilly. This model has been developed using locally collected data, including travellers’ observed choices and the stated choices they say they would make under changed circumstances. The model predicts changes in modal shift and in total travel demand as a result of changes in ferry services. The methodology also provides an enhancement to normal UK transport appraisal procedures. It includes travellers’ benefits from improved quality of services and scheduling and exact consumer surplus calculations, which allow for variation in travellers’ tastes and the possibility of calculating the impact of discontinuation of services.
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Table of Contents
Chapter One
Background
Chapter Two
Study Design: Data Collection
Chapter Three
Sample Sizes
Chapter Four
Data Quality
Chapter Five
The Mode Choice Model: Analysis of the SP/RP Data
Chapter Six
The Trip Frequency Model
Chapter Seven
Forecasting Tool
Chapter Eight
Results
Chapter Nine
Conclusion
Appendix A
Value of Time
Appendix B
Sunday Sailings
Appendix C
Accent Fieldwork report
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The research described in this report was prepared for the Cornwall County Council and was conducted by RAND Europe.
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