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Submissions for capital funding to improve transport infrastructure requires estimates of the cost benefits travellers will receive from those improvements. This study provides an example of how a travel demand model was used to predict travellers’ responses and quantify their benefits from different ferry service options to the Isles of Scilly. This model has been developed using locally collected data, including travellers’ observed choices and the stated choices they say they would make under changed circumstances. The model predicts changes in modal shift and in total travel demand as a result of changes in ferry services. The methodology also provides an enhancement to normal UK transport appraisal procedures. It includes travellers’ benefits from improved quality of services and scheduling and exact consumer surplus calculations, which allow for variation in travellers’ tastes and the possibility of calculating the impact of discontinuation of services.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Background

  • Chapter Two

    Study Design: Data Collection

  • Chapter Three

    Sample Sizes

  • Chapter Four

    Data Quality

  • Chapter Five

    The Mode Choice Model: Analysis of the SP/RP Data

  • Chapter Six

    The Trip Frequency Model

  • Chapter Seven

    Forecasting Tool

  • Chapter Eight

    Results

  • Chapter Nine

    Conclusion

  • Appendix A

    Value of Time

  • Appendix B

    Sunday Sailings

  • Appendix C

    Accent Fieldwork report

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the Cornwall County Council and was conducted by RAND Europe.

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