Forecasting the Supply of and Demand for Physicians in the Inland Southern California Area
Download eBook for Free
Full Document
| Format | File Size | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PDF file | 0.2 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
Summary Only
| Format | File Size | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PDF file | 0.1 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
The authors forecast that the Inland Southern California area (the southeastern-most part of the state) is likely to experience a 32 percent shortfall in the number of physicians who provide patient care (including medical residents and fellows) by the year 2020. The authors conclude that their results are sensitive to a variety of factors, including the accuracy of population projections. However, based on a single criterion-a projected shortfall in the physician supply necessary to meet the demand for physicians in the four-county Inland Southern California region — a case can be made to move forward with the University of California, Riverside, medical school proposal. Under scenarios of rapid population growth (especially growth that is more rapid than forecast by the California Department of Finance), a healthy economy, an aging population (i.e., a decline in the proportion of the population that is under age 15), the demand for physicians in Inland Southern California will exceed the supply if the recent trends underlying the authors’ supply model continue.
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Inland Southern California, San Joaquin Valley, and California: Context for Comparison
Chapter Three
Forecasting the Future Supply of Physicians In ISC, In SJV and In California
Chapter Four
Forecasting the Future Demand of Physicians In ISC, SJV, and California
Chapter Five
Balancing Supply and Demand
Chapter Six
Conclusion and Discussion
The research described in this report was prepared for the County of Riverside Economic Development Agency, and conducted within RAND Health, a division of the RAND Corporation.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Technical report series. RAND technical reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope or intended for a narrow audience; present discussions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research professionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.